Jalen Hurts played the way he should play going forward. He was a QB who can run. The prior two games, he was a single-wing running back like Jim Thorpe, with 16 carries a game, which is just ridiculous. Throw 50/50 balls to A.J. Brown, which are like 80/20 in his favor. When you average over eight yards per attempt, running at QB is decidedly non-optimal. Steve Young, by the way, ran about four times a game. Throwing beats running. So if you’re good at it as a QB, that has to be your game. Running is a cherry on top. An accent. Now for fantasy, I get it. We want reckless running from QBs. That’s were the disconnect is, I think.
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Jimmy Garoppolo’s season-ending injury just crushes the Niners and all the elite skill players the Niners have compiled. When teams have a chance to prepare for Brock Purdy it’s going to be “purdy” ugly.
Check Jaylen Waddle’s status (leg) before moving forward with lineups. He looked hurt and was obviously ineffective.
I’ve long said that if Joe Mixon was out, whoever his backup was with the same market share would be at least 95% as productive. I rest my case. But the Samaje Perine party ends next week.
So much for Ja’Marr Chase being limited. The tell was his trash talking during the week.
Patrick Mahomes can’t take a sack on 3rd-and-3 on their last possession, but you still have to go for 4th-and-7 over a 55-yard-FG (missed). The Chiefs never got that ball back. That sack was terrible since you can just throw it away and go for it on 4th-and-3. He had five seconds to throw. It was basically a turnover and Mahomes knew it.
The Raiders are an all-time fantasy two-man offense now with Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams.
They say it’s a two-week injury for Lamar Jackson (knee) but he was unable to come back last year quickly with a similar injury (this also could be a bone bruise in the knee where last year it was in the ankle).
#NFL Injury Updates:#Ravens Lamar Jackson – Video suggests PCL. Comments mean likely sprain +/- bone bruise, but not tear. Avg = 2-4 wks. Lean towards ~2#49ers Jimmy Garoppolo – Out for season. Pocket QB like Jimmy G should make full performance recovery by ’23 season
1/7
— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) December 5, 2022
MyCole Pruitt having more touchdowns this year than the tight end he replaced, Kyle Pitts, shows that the beings running our simulation have a sense of humor.
It was not a good homecoming for George Pickens, who you can’t count on now for all the marbles. That doesn’t mean he’s not going to be good one day or that he’s not talented. It’s just a bad environment.
Imagine you’re George Pickens, you’re going home to Georgia for the first time as a pro. You played high school & college ball there. The city came out for you, all your people, and Matt Canada put you in the slot. There’s a punishment happening here. Idk for what, but it’s clear pic.twitter.com/FToxGg99ew
— Dave Saitzyk (@DaveSaitzyk) December 4, 2022
At least Drake London getting 12 targets made sense.
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Justin Fields is an unbelievable runner.
Who cashed some Justin Fields bets on this INSANE TD run?
💨 First TD scorer (+750)
💨 Anytime TD (+100)
via @BetMGM | #DaBearspic.twitter.com/KcAiug0R84
— NBC Sports EDGE Betting (@NBCSportsBet) December 4, 2022
In college, Fields was a quarterback who ran, and now he’s a running QB. It’s probably out of necessity given his receiving corps. This has to change or he’s going to have a short career.
Aaron Jones was hurt before and during the game but AJ Dillon is coming on the past couple of weeks. After the bye, it’s probably back to a full-blown committee no matter Jones’ health.
They don’t give the Rookie of the Year for touchdowns and Christian Watson has just 40 targets all season. He’s not close to being the best rookie WR, though he’s clearly explosive and very interesting for our 2023 drafts.
Garrett Wilson now has 790 receiving yards and 94 targets. He’s looking like a third-round pick in 2023 fantasy drafts. In two games with Mike White, he has 257 receiving yards. He stepped out by a toe at the 11-yard line or he would have had a 75-yard TD. He also got his hands on a long pass that would have been a 50-yard TD but it was knocked away/dropped. (Remember, White is an unrestricted free agent.)
Elijah Moore was in some lineups despite me advising against it. He doesn’t get snaps or targets. He’s good, but he has no role on this team given how important Corey Davis is in the pass game — Davis also had 10 targets for 85 yards, including a key fourth-down catch.
The Jets do MPH tracking in practice and Zonovan Knight is their fastest back by far. He showed that explosiveness on a 48-yard run. Expect Knight to continue to be featured. Ty Johnson had one carry. The Jets should have given the ball to Knight twice from the one instead of passing. That cost them the game.
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Running from the one-yard line is a 63% succesful play and passing is a 58% play (through Week 12). But the Jets had two snaps.
I give Mike White a gentleman’s C for that game. The Vikings, remember, are not a good defense.
I guess D’Andre Swift is finally healthy (18 touches). Oliver Stone could make a movie about whatever was going on with Swift the past five games (39 touches combined).
Zay Jones was terrible and dropped a few passes, too. Other than Christian Kirk, no one for the Jaguars showed up to play.
Since T.J. Hockenson was traded five games ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown has 41 catches (50 targets) for 486 yards and three TDs. That’s a 139-catch, 1,652-yard, 10-TD pace. He’s a first-round pick in 2023 and is a very tough player for his size, so I think he can handle these targets.
Saquon Barkley looks like he’s hit a wall. His line is not doing him any favors but there are too many unsuccessful plays (39.1% success vs. the Commanders — average is 46.3%). For the year, Barkley is at 37.8%. That’s 39th of 41 RBs with at least 100 rushes (Ken Walker is last).
Speaking of Walker, he’s out for a couple weeks most likely with an ankle injury. DeeJay Dallas is next man up, it seems.
Playing Cam Akers is winning ugly. More on his game and forecast in my Market Share Report, coming Tuesday.
Terry McLaurin has to be played now. It’s not close. In seven games with Taylor Heinicke, McLaurin has 40 catches for 578 yards and a TD. That’s a 97-1,400 pace. Giddy up!
Darius Slayton is a good player. He deserves a chance from the get-go next year. He’s a Top 100 pick right now on my board.
Don’t ask why I looked this up, but Darius Slayton’s current streak of five straight 58-plus yard games is second only to Jaylen Waddle’s six-game streak
— Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) December 1, 2022
Courtland Sutton’s zero day was hamstring related and he’s expected to be out for about three weeks.
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Defensive scoring is just out of control when you get Browns putting up nearly 30 points. I get that was able to be forecasted and I had them active in a very big league, but it’s still dumb. My home league has Team Coach. You get a bonus if the team wins and their score divided by five. If they lose, just their score divided by 10. But if your league is higher scoring, juice it up. But there has to be a lower ceiling for random defense.
(Top photo: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)
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